FROZEN PREDICTION

South Carolina vs Clemson

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Clemson by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5267 · 80% margin interval -15.8 to 17.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.16908313281083798
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.014425651287488274
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.08892082525614547
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.002219199365268369
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.13499695553904523
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.01646100042937783
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.007484495010190595
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.010174784791079812
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.01451357629194766
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0270832439367606
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.025080691753573903
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.013335325498498186
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.05875490926838978
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.029958909298374248
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.024373340390755224
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.