FROZEN PREDICTION

Baylor vs Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 6.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6908 · 80% margin interval -10.2 to 23.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.051650479340184435
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0010730664376093074
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.0017269689928841522
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.0023776209235794044
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.09398220264158559
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.0004666765613847313
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0017864288455577146
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0013710442342360794
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.006206169366260707
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.013134955902438081
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.19069677749294364
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.030229369887083163
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.0936548828984238
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.17651850757322216
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.02181172132696195
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.