FROZEN PREDICTION

UTEP vs Northern Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northern Illinois by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5773 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.008314011243039404
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.002867722537029327
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04350317129693898
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.09516000281681669
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.0364065953729346
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.026439517180440138
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.008876429082324205
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.004487832312055331
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.021831329007932773
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.021945972208052618
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.01163816324905853
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	0.006035062551567855
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.0019990148467882163
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.04659143590914494
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.03629501198156083
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.011672706611643796

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.