FROZEN PREDICTION

Navy vs Charlotte

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Navy by 4.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3676 · 80% margin interval -21.1 to 12.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.22251620045075093
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.11104849618932072
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.023525433058699485
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.1617100870361975
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.1075807572967171
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.004086538073874614
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.025825474321378165
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.02139418643872316
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.02141910829892494
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01651223092938476
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.07841179208905681
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.11746136958146741
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.029319358552056852
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.049487835815650694
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.14569282824377267

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.