FROZEN PREDICTION

UConn vs Wyoming

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UConn by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4311 · 80% margin interval -18.9 to 14.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.24790793248907128
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.01674714096032153
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.09065523808089551
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03285207520600503
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.17707724313842044
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.013347528386425571
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.008591323965173222
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005383400875640831
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.010669825770179183
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.00993985912370966
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.04037811444953031
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.032337787982790224
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03578894094188162
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.09136570884298173
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.