FROZEN PREDICTION

USC vs UCLA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7354 · 80% margin interval -8.5 to 24.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	0.12666492467445156
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.062359716964374645
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03639724630290668	-0.0034688256495000666
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	0.14271819091158056
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.09099311575726671	0.033436742209229375
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	0.03578609978598999
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.01868871873607815
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.014500074887574245
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	0.007161988836128481
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	0.008702008742657778
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.06981965573804874
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07279449260581336	0.09255154451466265
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.05019904731057727
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10919173890872005	0.06377561924154126
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05459586945436003	0.08452023373477584
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14558898521162672	0.07030337347028504

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.