FROZEN PREDICTION

NC State vs North Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Carolina by 8.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7373 · 80% margin interval -8.4 to 24.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.1699942363053065
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.061286650526765345
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.014528587461277276
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.13757495919084084
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.025273008158431313
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.023116404886158116
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.021775465963594542
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01322980671464162
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.020380682433214073
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.011820406694809538
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.10751394100760925
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.0058092982759597525
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.16626553933598331
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.16670541835034453
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.00947242317427633
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.