FROZEN PREDICTION

Southern Miss vs Old Dominion

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Old Dominion by 3.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6104 · 80% margin interval -13.0 to 20.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.13488016318204998	0.023005507549807014
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.050580061193268744	0.00839695359298382
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.033720040795512496	0.027918268647074924
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08430010198878124	0.1559232893589416
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08430010198878124	-0.11389214085523316
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.015202702702702704	-0.029663127685752123
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.02027027027027027	0.01910222032883578
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.02533783783783784	0.00649429865281089
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.02027027027027027	-0.04500612147962899
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.02533783783783784	-0.0009944863011925893
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10116012238653749	0.012941833607821751
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.06744008159102499	0.027607836165632435
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.050580061193268744	0.015352176217479325
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10116012238653749	0.03709407207825562
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.050580061193268744	-0.01718208946959758
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.13488016318204998	0.03666887283201356

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.