FROZEN PREDICTION

Troy vs Arkansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arkansas State by 0.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5093 · 80% margin interval -16.4 to 17.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.04558862394035005
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05291308004660458
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.05870241256251364
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.02706246297201039
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.0026007412109324696
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.007088354980587923
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0010788007601100665
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.004639548976430886
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0009849297537870673
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.009721421515230356
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.01620710382741143
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.01292375365144449
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.06684625109159772
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.055657484891993514
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.16129294749619114

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.