FROZEN PREDICTION

Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Middle Tennessee by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5705 · 80% margin interval -14.4 to 19.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.04654288379867545
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.008373570480160762
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.060436825387263665
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1176553175433237
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.006658866114519657
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.016203385388500535
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0139605096416835
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.015550425759318623
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.013707221427383478
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.007843329756437561
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.050070923883550465
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.0629336356154709
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.10462646276238102
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.