FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida Atlantic vs North Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Texas by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5979 · 80% margin interval -13.4 to 19.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.03417336696018662
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0023214896728332574
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.0017344128247500298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.034004378237729595
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.07498630131992694
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.024447485777514176
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0341164185511303
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.003748059628961785
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.04104220752358387
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.001272473945306241
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.022971836320419683
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.004243020538131748
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.05123027694778396
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.03491964849562002
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.024361876832251265
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.07566026167372006

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.