FROZEN PREDICTION

Kent State vs Sacramento State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Sacramento State by 0.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5028 · 80% margin interval -16.6 to 16.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.06176944894889996
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.0005462328641960695
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.04984354461408194
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.001298363944244818
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.014357313890212926
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.024630704057686935
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.014659168997126626
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.011419534885543052
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.02508095972074211
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.0009527270781701791
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.0823393721388464
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038610341030272805
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.12642908902248046
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.000415834302119035
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.10333129967001914

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.