FROZEN PREDICTION

Miami vs North Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4751 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	-0.11955122418438802
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.05366334868436351
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.014626066211901897
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.0019394014294988743
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.12293721586879129
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.010520128975820978
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.05077681341737129
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.02656311981417034
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.007087256533476684
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.02296739500909965
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.08884748577689092
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	-0.14290620012121577
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.0362621226132403
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.32043772680635574
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.13924512703909908
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	-0.23533076813857468

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.