FROZEN PREDICTION

California vs NC State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

NC State by 1.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5400 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 18.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.032572178131500235
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.02093392620040191
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.015109206346815915
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03789966070143188
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.047102513901146593
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.002037930744007211
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.013246689998022004
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.008797388782617486
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.000830740692568695
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0023591238179130735
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03829357584097631
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.01078862324836644
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.06780152975697898
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03446234937422055
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.