FROZEN PREDICTION

Arizona vs Texas Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 7.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7135 · 80% margin interval -9.3 to 24.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.07009569454377385
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.05047841137676695
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.04369068496632234
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.053770197287987334
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.016351841422860267
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.007884010080113657
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.022935525634962893
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.018777809282374096
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0030389704758425496
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01968310145157059
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.15058141815083448
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	-0.002735927296244639
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.07340758923218496
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.09700816694786159
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.018858598793136026
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.08983787439674126

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.