FROZEN PREDICTION

Nevada vs UCLA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 16.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.9003 · 80% margin interval 0.0 to 33.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.25658752616316055
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0604038925091597
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.08719385626326132
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.1598687993050557
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.1648946784218648
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.03975479629069732
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.017829589804799102
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.020365240003460874
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.01674461708458777
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.05259395315876301
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.28039127863022306
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.07609575597847797
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.16491108930588028
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.18639746449561156
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.09230271995993346
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.3500961603235733

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.