FROZEN PREDICTION

UAB vs South Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Florida by 6.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6859 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 23.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.14188873309395228
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.07608503326624946
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	-0.015689825232354553
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.05955682955568982
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.0813504633003364
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	-0.0015028641644114268
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.024232501348843208
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	0.009793496858241301
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.02505359882891299
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	0.008557372601209447
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.03273678630774367
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	-0.01809446854111398
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.06422054099343864
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.03834535360600112
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.007697718537755319
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.05784398394368789

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.