FROZEN PREDICTION

Temple vs East Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

East Carolina by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5689 · 80% margin interval -14.4 to 18.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.015375246288103078
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.0711753490813665
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.01510920634681592
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.0235904902382965
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.017230889876214454
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01329244917712808
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.015781697831428423
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.008953097990792384
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.012149582628817173
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01307484451810215
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.045988915718833984
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.089905193736387
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.05605355940411788
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.06374356357689405
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10110947709407966

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.