FROZEN PREDICTION

Minnesota vs Indiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 12.5

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.8322 · 80% margin interval -4.1 to 29.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.25536800472700455
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.12623157498842355
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.1101607770581578
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.1206991883799772
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0021113696897371954
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.025317140679140378
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0031040213247357316
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0250779846569175
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.008288472451170502
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.2178064206211556
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.10788623248366438
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10996238976854478
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.11000948217523537
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.07997242592621832
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.