FROZEN PREDICTION

Bowling Green vs Western Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Michigan by 7.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:33.001398-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7099 · 80% margin interval -9.5 to 23.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.17235727949578855
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.04186785240080382
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.08616823273388853
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.07983638753237582
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.01969999719206966
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.014814648014461891
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0012634586332325864
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.04489893836867373
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0008881407314496378
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.05702964868783071
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.0269715581209161
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.005960849506554754
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0859115327135379
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20221895418815933

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.