FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 8.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceNeutral effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7507 · 80% margin interval -7.9 to 25.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.23402772773500977
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.04660087050508027
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.2073849141091172
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.05531649657376205
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.003947343332986934
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.012797917669572278
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0016874420317801592
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0008351550628120027
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.10786799022124284
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.11432002457148935
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.035694547390731406
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.2633130237547189
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.12037447319144652
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.30555025385817847

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.