FROZEN PREDICTION

Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Eastern Michigan by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5333 · 80% margin interval -15.6 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.00862423430697673
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.002321489672833285
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	-0.04532389712451481
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.04900777337589553
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.025946983331486095
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.00583071303496186
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.0012460107636573497
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.007611271917997043
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.0016111349104901028
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.016890256325546398
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.0628140284942452
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.14705120915681527
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.057419416044600734
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.11447712478000503
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.012101394978367857
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.04326549315039176

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.