FROZEN PREDICTION

James Madison vs Southern Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

James Madison by 9.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.2378 · 80% margin interval -25.9 to 7.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.30415217404978123
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.15321758199615299
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.08892826908801135
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.20076825029438866
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.11857333070623516
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.011571104149169948
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.02877843459133647
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.001071603449284383
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.05417180456316567
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.014592692571742125
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.167420466414326
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.19205611450136448
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07319249299602887
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.11081409750516596
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.070513236812218
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.4766548528380127

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.