FROZEN PREDICTION

South Florida vs East Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Florida by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4781 · 80% margin interval -17.4 to 15.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.08580770071886978
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.11722998672225071
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.06248916471382382
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.031296746198141184
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01340260759572306
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0073554760025835025
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0032713452057814667
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0005192129328554368
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.006981492624775894
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.10147992602060153
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.07012605111438186
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.05964149373290567
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.020124094872389038
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10110947709407965

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.