FROZEN PREDICTION

TCU vs Arizona

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona by 6.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6883 · 80% margin interval -10.3 to 23.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	0.03479119964430906
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	-0.010209149703993815
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	0.04350317129693898
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	-0.06876780235940493
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08430010198878124	0.052117430229496324
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.0068496784069654705
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0015822240375993873
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.013488051706754517
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.02718237185362027
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01732145450657954
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	0.15190465127245772
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.06744008159102499	0.08920837727178776
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.08311552927716484
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10116012238653749	-0.15088272592617488
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.050580061193268744	0.06500995877310274
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.13488016318204998	0.2602582859268321

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.