FROZEN PREDICTION

Kentucky vs Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 1.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5328 · 80% margin interval -15.6 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.01728462184586399
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10466963100200954
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.04532761904044775
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.028099535304932838
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.007349114882823582
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.017772224866657436
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.009778574038742344
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.023798882114686167
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.008307406925686956
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.013043305429627394
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.13455709535065374
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.02157724649673288
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07671595935865438
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.16047296685729173
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03998621296310917
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.