FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado vs Arizona State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona State by 3.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6101 · 80% margin interval -13.0 to 20.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.036695437721294764
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.004026926167277317
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.0950838740769708
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.11744882163857662
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.006857361557537765
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0200514962485207
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.007015080934732196
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0014018749187096717
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003156431974555356
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.044564679071957124
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.09684914397260833
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.03936408959797179
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.18188335516278117
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04615135997996673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.11669872010785776

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.