FROZEN PREDICTION

Iowa State vs Baylor

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Baylor by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6946 · 80% margin interval -10.0 to 23.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.0799967285339916
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.05131448931857389
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.054129579443757944
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.020593727254493127
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.014548594405110192
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.005135873631123892
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0027230647481089262
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.034681849096104785
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.014120237026390018
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.08547912043719962
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.15254558917054856
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.037968100699116304
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.14987724872400063
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.06177569611082462
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.17676973876779972

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.