FROZEN PREDICTION

Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Coastal Carolina by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5780 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14558898521162672	0.05077562341307157
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05459586945436003	0.06519966469325178
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03639724630290668	-0.01254888265313729
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.09099311575726671	-0.05129918012172497
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.09099311575726671	0.057414035812062794
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.005067567567567568	0.003626047945418224
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.006756756756756757	-0.011962435998769394
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.008445945945945946	0.0018333035209588634
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.006756756756756757	0.0016095600918518494
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.008445945945945946	0.008416521150378092
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10919173890872005	-0.021133406164153948
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07279449260581336	0.054136003748393904
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05459586945436003	-0.018667189152486604
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10919173890872005	-0.11901070648066298
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05459586945436003	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14558898521162672	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.