FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech vs Troy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 0.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4902 · 80% margin interval -17.0 to 16.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.058414811877665875
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08053852334554627
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.01778497385520256
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.1175185878304292
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.002258247581197163
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.004455998713660307
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.00893531302295888
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.022274234819498157
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.012937964874121636
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.10995159906514414
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.02421228599315208
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.24290343912860066
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04615135997996673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.