FROZEN PREDICTION

Northern Illinois vs San José State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San José State by 3.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.6078 · 80% margin interval -13.1 to 20.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.022346876075585775
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.07722742988869401
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.05870985639437952
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.016271610597567626
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.007491671229679864
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.028073533722932403
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.010973309401682022
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.005271396567679745
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.021130391548577942
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.018291222635595846
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.017154804051707703
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.08706433886404591
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.0021940646228575875
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.3251745325813697
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.003294042097142763
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.19277620824041664

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.