FROZEN PREDICTION

Penn State vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5855 · 80% margin interval -13.9 to 19.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.06417635162882265
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.01730311459794351
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.029645237639959077
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.06613302975429647
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.002569383771542497
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.005784813693880608
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.007082732904306612
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.007960011858018836
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.021107580539211687
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.027949496540808756
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.10815191507689557
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.0421694447838323
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.026951762307718747
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.02245343952503537
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.05208760794147702
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.04326549315039176

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.