FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs UAB

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UAB by 8.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7412 · 80% margin interval -8.2 to 25.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.11088920544120481
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.04114495345600124
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.061017444272802306
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.13811357461109758
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.03009210531605215
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.010040141605522692
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.011798968467723166
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.012616651487544296
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.010359872829104184
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.009178949193464257
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.10707119663263767
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.13164472823017076
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.001640939493786596
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.10551947225178765
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.03228849442535384
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.24548444733855113

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.