FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs Tulane

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulane by 1.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5530 · 80% margin interval -14.9 to 18.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.0727172750771426
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.058614993361125356
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.04993685191520335
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.10951745728987353
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.011034201595930911
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.017538259307935445
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0077575126021488345
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.010540022536965326
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.007076109890200216
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.09584396200085668
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.09170329761111476
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.005456024175904871
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.027409039764228503
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.