FROZEN PREDICTION

North Carolina vs UConn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Carolina by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3835 · 80% margin interval -20.5 to 12.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.1116838633462393
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05291308004660458
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.11564226866367763
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.01152260174251923
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.04037455713270563
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.007756049140652697
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.039263370037606465
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.009448100559330654
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.02940534086480432
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.19742123202846323
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.04355561940725878
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.13060948117249824
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.2747627398115451
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.070513236812218
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.0600710186599419

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.