FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Middle Tennessee by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5286 · 80% margin interval -15.7 to 17.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14705882352941177	0.008331199576980364
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	0.0029587613477286834
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.015206685097440536
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09191176470588236	-0.003606655112815993
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09191176470588236	-0.02559964985316021
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.0012010660186846241
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.01770671336842808
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.008152806040600612
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.015785647977443473
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.011193035383463303
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.11029411764705883	0.04875409715289886
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07352941176470588	-0.09956528836363276
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	-0.0036301377622592196
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.11029411764705883	-0.13485051087520566
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	-0.02769903998778614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14705882352941177	0.0476356041371114

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.