FROZEN PREDICTION

Temple vs Navy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Navy by 2.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5815 · 80% margin interval -14.0 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.04023656605988069
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.039873147107954234
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.00669297963493235
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.004100364488617621
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.010144932028443313
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.012513657096390898
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.012931178338823717
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.03157989158793491
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.019394177860788744
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.018832246277589098
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.005165386826103513
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.023811159579359063
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.057350727677077676
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.04636139930438863
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.00945918911400033
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.04448177564616382

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.