FROZEN PREDICTION

Missouri State vs Florida International

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida International by 7.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7105 · 80% margin interval -9.4 to 23.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.15207754954964883
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10466963100200956
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.21661493888190936
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.04224085312338298
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.027502885175881026
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0018553248826204093
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.018759615181501647
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.00015576387985663
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.013149466001433484
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.012235182177485454
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.10968433635839214
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.02175731437596566
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.039986212963109155
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10110947709407966

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.