FROZEN PREDICTION

Liberty vs New Mexico State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 4.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3594 · 80% margin interval -21.3 to 12.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.19118256904625883
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.07130782905124874
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.13539262909855634
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.038949407395913405
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.000881267348759875
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.008336458846025229
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.01883936235505241
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.007217059766690546
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.017755434482289424
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.034975729391913846
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.15687681629836112
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.03270606908276841
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.07317881376735848
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.08002902580171692
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.3046418906415044

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.