FROZEN PREDICTION

Boise State vs Colorado State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 6.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.2968 · 80% margin interval -23.6 to 9.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.214320191927047
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.11777621958644677
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.18394816902933056
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.015893912200049584
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.007362254309431444
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.021046907422648496
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.008567998993418117
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01386298530724011
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0033986521740415982
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.18487473590012699
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.21180285111924368
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.09534922117232658
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.0684626738664367
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.08002902580171692
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.3046418906415044

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.