FROZEN PREDICTION

Air Force vs Army

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Army by 1.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5455 · 80% margin interval -15.2 to 18.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.024675925216173598
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.008053852334554634
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.014532309377210216
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.025447209852039993
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.03866808910881617
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.001074044581301095
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.007206130582185047
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.01775708230365588
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.037621439581113164
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.015843428211736964
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.0415067759882607
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0048969561550493345
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.05113740997875253
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04615135997996673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.11669872010785781

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.