FROZEN PREDICTION

Fresno State vs Utah State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah State by 0.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.020774-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5232 · 80% margin interval -15.9 to 17.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.07112135127614529
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.008373570480160762
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.05604166338187991
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.08487150477524114
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.011999005745458645
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.00007250643887651625
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0034118101558133686
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.013966827893811196
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.010502516462099622
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.013747001899294009
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.06113553174074317
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.016164973290788903
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.21093894182178705
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.15994485185243665
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20221895418815933

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.