FROZEN PREDICTION

Memphis vs South Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Florida by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5803 · 80% margin interval -14.0 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.01599049323208718
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.0456585230760653
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	-0.047062031865197786
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.08489290810124722
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	-0.06585830263847561
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.0031655578169618387
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.012657124334483679
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.0009400941878002652
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.0058427203132619
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	0.0005022894047522598
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.05544438227798284
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	-0.09089805978895406
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.042457184381278726
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.10029146036801831
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	-0.09904989102973455
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	-0.03213031956912172

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.