FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana vs UL Monroe

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana by 4.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.3556 · 80% margin interval -21.5 to 11.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.20218117482445108
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.06466707416845285
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.05870985639437952
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.17653346127641564
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.04896966800481586
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.019230327195397016
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.018414687179573546
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.01886334922016408
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.026961706357156712
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.025786802402510557
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.05735490210118202
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.1347914100109443
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.001640939493786589
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.13798788850756688
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07667838382907556
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.29388568533449627

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.