FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida State vs Pittsburgh

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 8.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.7344 · 80% margin interval -8.5 to 24.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.08497063091866161
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08373570480160765
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.060436825387263665
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09242755045527774
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.049543116419917536
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.012871093226002269
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0006511246640209488
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.01671206242705006
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0002076851731421742
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.018575261548102677
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.22644185257549182
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.001798103874727744
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08058086232232671
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.05101940829833855
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.