FROZEN PREDICTION

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5222 · 80% margin interval -15.9 to 17.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.042813799575546166
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.016107704669109255
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.029064618754420443
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.12662153437304396
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.09772805998232378
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.044229982046118554
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.005893013990874673
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.010136342789510647
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.010046770250752665
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01314801520336363
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.043642726255372064
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.06226016398239106
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.002692069572852701
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.09372607851744999
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04615135997996673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.11669872010785781

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.