FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5209 · 80% margin interval -16.0 to 17.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.03755001478482367
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.018139925543536974
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.018827797415931546
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.09342700831149856
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.01658033871618906
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.010342333032989582
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01771714465225927
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.03421455745653489
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.01643198913341397
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.12545828386761587
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.07140661378690535
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.11510228091848435
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.05139077322891848
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.06434808979536043
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.07566026167372006

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.