FROZEN PREDICTION

Stanford vs Virginia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia Tech by 11.8

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.8181 · 80% margin interval -4.9 to 28.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.3187492222026157
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.12560355720241145
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.1928340983460833
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.23247933477575133
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.016872597781465062
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.005127020879132842
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.001434049141023264
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.007995879165973697
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0006206892611835555
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.11104837889871898
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.11328054410784762
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08015867414431128
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.09860997042120788
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.07997242592621832
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20221895418815933

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.