FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 0.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.4815 · 80% margin interval -17.3 to 16.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.061829236894999196
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.06443081867643702
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.0031756845582625315
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.030451607688597712
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.035884104857316065
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.05922222993413797
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.020128954002244438
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0396808483934766
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.010360590563963136
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.02026834526329957
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.012106142996576044
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.09090837030673157
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.03690111481856721
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.11669872010785776

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.