FROZEN PREDICTION

Alabama vs Vanderbilt

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Alabama by 11.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:36.484015-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.1946 · 80% margin interval -27.9 to 5.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.31634252935679635
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.13397712768257222
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.15908870976788164
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.19259988340953543
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008555637177543766
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0036017953194057185
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.027980164348193615
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.00467291639569891
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.029302210163788766
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.29847638864264936
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.22656108821569526
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.1714576542877772
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.10862629798482741
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.15194760925981482
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20221895418815936

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.